Thunder Have the Talent to Make a Deep Playoff Run

Los Angeles Lakers 116, Oklahoma City Thunder 104.

Probably not the best game to use as a barometer for Oklahoma City’s playoff potential.

Not much went right for the Thunder on Monday. A team that entered the game with the NBA’s third-best offensive rating shot less than 40% from the floor. The NBA’s fourth-best defensive team allowed the Lakers to shoot 51.2% from the field and 47.1% from three. The team with the NBA’s second-best net rating fell behind by as many as 25 points and didn’t lead for a minute in the second half.

“Certainly not our fastball tonight,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said.

Whatever. A March loss in L.A. is forgettable. The real question is how many wins can Oklahoma City collect in April? Or in May? Or in (gulp) June?

This has been an outstanding season in OKC. It’s no longer a small sample size. There’s just over a month left in the regular season. Only two teams (the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves) have more wins. Only one team (Boston) has a better point differential. No team shoots the three better. A young roster that got off to a fast start has hardened into a legitimate contender.

Right?

There are reasons to believe in the Thunder. They begin with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City’s MVP candidate. Gilgeous-Alexander has stuffed the stat sheet all season, entering the game against the Lakers averaging 31.2 points (on 54.8% shooting) while collecting 5.6 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He is on pace to become only the third player in NBA history to average at least 30-plus points and two-plus steals while shooting 50% or better from the field.

The other two? Michael Jordan during his peak Chicago Bulls years. And Stephen Curry in 2015–16, when he was the unanimous MVP.

But it’s not just Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s Chet Holmgren, a Rookie of the Year front-runner. Holmgren is the high-scoring (17.2 points per game), floor-spacing (39.7% from three), shot-blocking (2.6) big man Oklahoma City was hoping for when they drafted him second overall in 2022. What Holmgren lacks in muscle (a listed 7’ 1”, 208 pounds) he makes up for with a willingness to mix it up in the paint.

It’s Jalen Williams, who is fast becoming a star. Williams’s numbers are up across the board in his second season. He’s averaging close to 20 points. He’s handing out nearly five assists. His three-point percentage (44.5%) is among the best in the NBA. On some teams, Williams would be a budding first option. Oklahoma City has the luxury of sliding him into a second or third.

It’s Lu Dort, the Thunder’s defensive stopper. Before the game, Daigneault recalled several times he had seen frustrated glances from an opposing team’s star when he reinserted Dort into a game when the star checked back in. At 6’ 4” and 220 pounds, Dort has the size to defend forwards and the quickness to stay in front of guards. On Sunday, Dort limited Kevin Durant to 20 points (on six of 15 shooting) in Oklahoma City’s win over the Phoenix Suns.

It’s clear Oklahoma City has the pieces to win. What the Thunder don’t have is experience. The Thunder starting lineup has 13 games of postseason experience, with Gilgeous-Alexander collecting six of them as a rookie with the Los Angeles Clippers. The rotation player with the most playoff experience is Gordon Hayward … who was acquired from the Charlotte Hornets less than a month ago.

Will experience matter? History suggests so. The Denver Nuggets won 54 games in 2018–19. The Nuggets lost in the second round. The Giannis Antetokounmpo–led Milwaukee Bucks lost three times in the first round before advancing to their first conference finals. Even Oklahoma City’s own past suggests a learning curve. In 2010, a Thunder team led by Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden won 50 games. In the playoffs, they were eliminated in the opening round by a seasoned Lakers team in six games.

Still, there’s a confidence in Oklahoma City. A swagger. They act like a team that doesn’t want this season to simply be a springboard into the next one. They swapped out young talent (Tre Mann, Vasilije Micić) for the veteran Hayward. To address their rebounding issues, they signed Bismack Biyombo. They will have home court advantage in at least the first round, where they are 24–6.

They are not discouraged by defeat, either. Asked about the way the Lakers played on Monday, Gilgeous-Alexander pinned the blame on the Thunder.

“More of it was us not having enough tonight,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “We have run into this during the season and we have been able to get back on track throughout the game and course correct and come out with the win. I just think we didn’t have enough to do so [tonight]. It’s more that than teams figuring us out.”

We’ll see. Games are different in the postseason. The physicality increases. Each possession matters more. Smart coaching staffs, with one team to focus on, will construct game plans the Thunder will have to adjust to. The talent to make a deep run is there in Oklahoma City. Come playoff time, we will see if talent is enough.