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5 Bets to Make this Week

With quite a variety in this week’s 5 Bets, we look at the Kentucky Derby, UFC 274, NASCAR, PGA Tour, and the English Premier League.

This Saturday it’s the 148th Kentucky Derby, and I like a longshot to triumph.

UFC 274 will be held in Phoenix on Saturday, and one of the main events intrigues me. The odds aren’t great, but one fighter should be able to dominate and defend his title.

NASCAR’s Goodyear 400 is at Darlington Raceway on Sunday, and I’m riding on one of the drivers to continue his hot streak.

The PGA Tour is playing the Wells Fargo Championship on a new course, and one prop bet caught my eye.

The English Premier League is winding down, but one match this Saturday should be very entertaining.

This Week’s 5 Bets: 

  • White Abarrio to Win Kentucky Derby +1000 
  • Charles Oliveira -175 to Defeat Justin Gaethje +135
  • Ross Chastain +1200 Wins at Darlington 
  • Corey Connors to Finish Best of the Rest +500 
  • Burnley +200 Over Aston Villa +135

White Abarrio Wins Kentucky Derby 

Yes, I know, betting on gray or roan horses in the Kentucky Derby is considered unlucky. The last one to win the Run for the Roses was Giacomo in 2005. Thirty-three gray or roan horses have run the race since then, and of that group, just four finished on the board: Steppenwolfer (third, 2006), Eight Belles (second, 2008), Paddy O’Prado (third, 2010) and Essential Quality (third, 2021).

White Abarrio could buck that trend. At +1000 to win on Saturday, the fourth-best odds, he’s 4-0-1, taking the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes. In the Florida Derby, he defeated another Derby entrant, Charge It, by 1 ¼ lengths.

White Abarrio is in the 15th post position, and after a series of positive workouts, I’m willing to take a flyer on him.

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Oliveira Successfully Defends Title at UFC 27

Brazil’s Charles Oliveira has emerged as one of the superstars of MMA and looks to continue the hype this Saturday at UFC 274 in Phoenix.

The lightweight champion faces a brash Justin Gaethje, who is spending plenty of time pre-fight to disparage the champ. That strategy hasn’t impressed oddsmakers. They have him at +135 to upset Oliveira, who’s getting -175 odds. Oliveira is on a streak, with 10 consecutive victories. His last was a title defense against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269. He submitted Poirier in the third round. Oliveira was the +140 underdog in that bout.

Oliveira is the better fighter, but what he has to look out for is the punching power of Gaethje. If he catches too many shots, Gaethje can pull off the upset.

Still, I like the champ’s style and smarts in the octagon. Look for Oliveira to retain his belt.

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Chastain Gunning for Third Victory

There’s no hotter driver in NASCAR right now than Ross Chastain. The 29-year-old had gone 121 starts without a victory, then won at the Circuit of the Americas for his first win.

The second win didn’t take that long. Four races later he was in the winner’s circle at Talladega.

When he isn’t winning, Chastain is finishing in the Top 5. In seven of his last nine races, he’s finished fifth or better, including two runner-up places at Phoenix and Atlanta.

This Sunday, NASCAR is at Darlington in South Carolina, and Chastain is sporting +1200 odds. He finished third there last September for Chip Ganassi Racing. I like Chastain and I really like the odds.

Corey Connors Tops World’s Best 

Canadian Corey Connors is one of those golfers who always lurks around the top of the leaderboard. In his last six events, he finished 12th or better four times.

His tie for sixth at the Masters was impressive and he comes into the Wells Fargo Championship at +500 to finish better than other foreign players such as Mexican Abraham Ancer, Australian Marc Leishman, and South Korean Si Woo Kim. Leishman worries me. He has the game to get past Conners, but the rest of that category Connors can handle with ease.

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Burnley Upsets Aston Villa 

In the English Premier League, Burnley hosts Aston Villa and is +200 to win on Saturday at home. Aston Villa is at +135.
Burnley is currently in 16th place in the EPL standings and is just two points shy of falling to 18th and relegation. Aston Villa is three spots ahead and has been struggling, going 1-3-1 in its last five matches. Burnley has won three straight.

The last time the two met, Burnley won 3-2.
Home field, win streak, and victory in the previous meeting makes Burnley a good bet for several reasons. Look for the home team to be victorious on Saturday.

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