Held every Fourth of July since the 1970s, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has become an Independence Day institution.
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, NY is the most famous event on the competitive eating circuit and is relished by both fans and competitors. It is also the only competitive eating contest you can bet on in the U.S.
The top dog of the annual July 4th contest is Joey Chestnut. “Jaws” is considered the GOAT of this event, winning 14 of the past 15 years.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
- Joey Chestnut -1000
- Geoffrey Esper +1000
- James Webb +1600
- Nick Wehry +1800
- Darron Breeden +3300
- Miki Sudo -5000
- Michelle Lesco +1000
- Other +700
*Odds Courtesy of BetMGM
Last year, the big “wiener” broke his own record, consuming 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. He is the overwhelming -1000 favorite to win his 15th title.
We take a look at the available bets and provide our predictions. We also see how many awful hot dog puns we can come up with below. The over/under is 4.5.
Chestnut Will be Top Dog Again
Let’s be frank, nobody’s beating Joey Chestnut. He’s at -1000 and the next closest is Geoffrey Esper at +1000.
Last year, Chestnut broke his own record by eating 76 hot dogs and buns. Esper was second with 50. If Esper was a little closer it might be worth taking a flyer on with those odds.
A better wager would be who finishes second. Last year, Nicholas Wehry was six dogs behind Esper, and Darron Breeden was one behind Wehry at 43. Unfortunately, no sportsbook is offering that line. That’s too bad because there would probably be a lot more action.
Sudo Ready to Regain Title
Last year seven-time champion Miki Sudo had a bun in the oven and couldn’t compete. Now after the birth of her first child, she is ready to return and reclaim her title. She is the overwhelming favorite at -5000. Michelle Lesco, who won last year in Sudo’s absence, is next at +1000.
These two are pretty much the contenders as no other female apparently can cut the mustard and are not listed in the odds. The third entry is “other” at +700.
It doesn’t matter. Sudo should win on July 4 rather easily. In 2020, Sudo ate 48.5 hot dogs and buns. In 2021, Lesco consumed 30.75 hot dogs and buns.
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How Many Dogs for Chestnut, Sudo?
The total for how many hot dogs and buns Chestnut will eat in the 10-minute time limit is 74.5. The over is -125 and the under is -110.
Take the over. Chestnut ate 76 hot dogs last year and 75 in 2020. I don’t think Chestnut will exceed last year’s total. He knows his top competition, Esper, didn’t even reach 60 last year, so there is no way he can “ketchup” to Chestnut.
Though Chestnut might act like a hot dog during the event, he is also a serious competitor. He will try to get close to 76, but I think he ends up at 75.
Sudo’s total is 50.5, with the over and under at -115. In 2020 she ate 48.5. With Sudo missing last year, I am going to predict she is a bit rusty. Plus, if she ate 50 it would be a record.
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Man Vs. Woman
One of the more interesting prop bets is a head-to-head matchup between Sudo and Wehry, who are married. Sudo, the women’s champion is listed at -130 to eat more hot dogs and buns than Wehry, who is listed at -110.
Sudo’s best is 48.6, while Wehry had 44 in 2021. I would still lean towards Wehry though. I don’t think Sudo is going to come close to 48, while Wehry looks like he could improve on his 2021 total.
Wehry’s total is listed at 49.5. That’s awfully high for someone who’s best is 44. I’ll take the under on that at -115.
Remember, this is a dog-eat-dog competition and only the best survive. Thanks, I’ll be here all week, tip your waitress.
Want to watch the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest live? Stream it on FuboTV and get in on all the action.