Computer Picks NFL Team Win Totals
Bet.QL has a computer simulator that they deployed to figure out if NFL win totals were overvalued and the results were surprising.
As we approach the 2022 NFL season, BetQL’s Simulation Model has been hard at work.
Our Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times. We discovered some interesting discrepancies between what the model found and the odds from sportsbooks.
Of the 32 teams, 14 of them were undervalued. Conversely, 12 were overvalued. Six of the teams, the computer and the sportsbooks agreed on the victory total.
Let’s take a look at the teams below.
Colts Could Hit Double Digits Wins
The simulation data suggests that the Indianapolis Colts are the most undervalued AFC team since most sportsbooks have a 9.5-game consensus win total and we project them at 11.
AFC Regular Win Totals
| Team | Sportsbook | Simulation | Difference |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1 |
| NY Jets | 9.5 | 6.5 | +1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | 11 | +0.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | 8.5 | -1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
The Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets are also undervalued by a full game while the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos are all undervalued by a half game.
The computer agreed with sportsbooks on the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars and matches their win totals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the most overvalued team at 7.5 wins (the model projects six), while the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens are both overvalued by a full game.
The Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston Texans are also overvalued by a half game.
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Atlanta Falcons Surprise of NFC
The Atlanta Falcons are standing out as the most undervalued team in the NFC since our model is projecting them at 5.5 wins compared to their 4.5 consensus victories from sportsbooks.
NFC Regular Win Totals
| Team | Sportsbook | Simulation | Difference |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | 11 | +0.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | 11 | -0.5 |
| Washington Commanders | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 | 7.5 | -1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
The Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, and Seattle Seahawks are also undervalued by a half game.
The Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and Detroit Lions have no value in their win totals since our model and the sportsbooks matched.
The Carolina Panthers are the most overvalued NFC team. We projected five wins, sportsbooks predicted 6.5.
The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams are also overvalued by a full game. The Washington Commanders, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all overvalued by a half game.
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2021 Versus 2022
In 2021, there were 12 teams that had 10 or more victories. The Buccaneers and Packers had 13, the Rams, Cowboys, Titans and Chiefs had 12, the Bills and Cardinals had 11, and the Patriots, 49ers, Raiders, and Bengals had 10.
Of those 12, sportsbooks believe half of them will get to that figure again this season. The Bills and Buccaneers are expected to have the most wins with their totals at 11.5.
The Rams, Cowboys, Packers and Chiefs have totals at 10.5. The Ravens, who had eight victories last year, have a win total of 10.5.
The team with the biggest predicted decrease from last year is the Steelers. They went 9-7-1 in 2021, but sportsbooks have their total at 7.5 and the computer simulation has them at six for the 2022 season.
Another team that is expected to have less wins this season is the New England Patriots. The went 10-7 last season but sportsbooks and the computer simulation have their win total at 8.5.
Take a look at the data and make your decisions accordingly. It could provide a nice payout at the end of the season.
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