Think you know which teams will prevail in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 this weekend? Think again, with these two upset picks.

Sports bettors, breathe. After this week’s wall-to-wall college basketball coverage, we can rest up before the NCAA Sweet 16 and Elite 8 this weekend.

Two underdogs are sticking out early in the week. Let’s break it down:

No. 4 Florida State (+3, 143.5) vs. No. 1 Michigan

Florida State was able to handle the Colorado Rams in the Round of 32, 71-53.

Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines had a back-and-forth battle with offensive powerhouse LSU Tigers, but pulled away late, 86-78.

This matchup should suit FSU well. These are two strong three-point shooting teams, but the Noles length is going to give the Michigan offense some issues.

Leonard Hamilton’s club is capable of switching 1-to-5, so there will always be a body-checking Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson. FSU will also be able to throw quick footed, long defenders on Michigan guards Mike Smith and Eli Brooks.

Florida Flawed

The flaw with Florida State is its sloppy ball-handling. FSU is outside the nation’s Top 250 in turnover rate, but Michigan generates turnovers at the 20th lowest rate in the country. If Michigan isn’t going to turn its opponent over—LSU had three turnovers in the Round of 32—Florida State is going to be able to keep pace with the Wolverines offense.

I’m expecting a game similar to the LSU one for Michigan, which is going to require some big second-half shot-making to win. However, this is a stronger Seminoles team. They should be able to get enough stops to stay within a possession, and possibly win outright.

Pick: Florida State +3

Catch the Game
What: FSU Seminoles v. Michigan Wolverines
When: Sunday, March 28, 5 p.m. ET
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Watch: CBS

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No. 7 Oregon (+2.5, 139) vs. No. 6 USC

I’m going back to the Ducks in the Sweet 16.

Many will look to USC’s thumping of Oregon in Southern California on February 22nd, and say this is going to be a cakewalk for the Trojans.

However, that game was a schedule nightmare for the Ducks, who were playing their third game in five days, the fifth in 11 days. The Trojans jumped out to a 15-0 lead and never looked back.

I believe that a rested Ducks team with head coach Dana Altman will be better prepared and in good shape in the rematch.

USC was able to decimate the Kansas Jayhawks on both the perimeter and the glass in their 34-point win in the Round of 32. The team shot 11-of-18 from three and were +16 on the glass.

However, Oregon has the more reliable offense and I see some shooting regression coming for this USC offense.

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The Ducks’ offense—led by two guards, Chris Duarte and Will Richardson, with three other rotation players—is shooting over 35% from three. Oregon blitzed the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Round of 32, winning 95-80 and scheming out the Iowa perimeter threats.

Go Ducks

While the Trojans may have the size advantage with future lottery pick Evan Mobley, USC is an average three-point shooting team that runs hot and cold. I’m going to back Altman and his club with nearly a week to prepare his matchup zone.

Don’t forget that USC is a terrible free-throw shooting team, 64% as a team this season. This line ballooned to 2.5 after opening at USC -1, and I’ll happily grab the Ducks.

Pick: Oregon +2.5

Catch the Game
What: Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans
When: Sunday, March 28, 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Watch: TBS

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More Madness

There’s a good reason it’s called March Madness, just look at the upsets and early exits from last weekend. There should be some fantastic finishes to the 2021 tournament. Here’s where KenPom ranks the NCAA Sweet 16 teams (as of 3/22/21).

#1 Gonzaga
#2 Michigan
#3 Baylor
#6 Houston
#8 Alabama
#9 Loyola Chicago
#10 Villanova
#14 Florida St
#15 USC
#17 Arkansas
#18 Creighton
#36 Oregon
#40 UCLA
#53 Syracuse
#93 Oregon St
#165 Oral Roberts

Here’s the 2021 NCAA Sweet 16 tournament schedule:

Saturday, March 27, 2021

• Oregon State vs. Loyola-Chicago (CBS, 2:40 p.m.)
• Villanova vs. Baylor (CBS, 5:15 p.m.)
• Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas (TBS, 7:25 p.m.)
• Syracuse vs. Houston (TBS, 9:55 p.m.)

Sunday, March 28, 2021

• Creighton vs. Gonzaga (CBS, 2:10 p.m.)
• Florida State vs. Michigan (CBS, 5:00 p.m.)
• UCLA vs. Alabama (TBS, 7:15 p.m.)
• Oregon vs. USC (TBS, 9:45 p.m.)

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