NCAAF: Teams to Bet & Avoid Against the Spread
In NCAAF Week 8, the Georgia Bulldogs are looking great, along with the Cincy Bearcats and OK Sooners. But who’s your best bet against the spread?
While these teams are undefeated on the season, they’re not the best squads against the spread. Of the Top 3, Cincinnati has the best record ATS at 5-1. Georgia is 5-2 and Oklahoma 3-4.
No programs are undefeated ATS, but four have a better record than the Bearcats. The Syracuse Orange, Kentucky Wildcats, Bowling Green State Falcons, and University at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners are all 6-1 ATS.
Four universities are winless ATS. The New Mexico Lobos and Missouri Tigers are 0-7, while the Kansas Jayhawks and Clemson Tigers are 0-6.
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UTSA Crushing the Spread
Of the Top 4 teams against the spread, UTSA has the biggest point margin, covering an average of 8.4 points per game. The biggest spread differential was last week, against the Rice Owls. The Roadrunners were favored by 17 and won 45-0, easily covering by 28. Their only blemish was a seven-point victory when they were favored by 21.5.
The blowout victory against Rice moved the team to 7-0 and they are now ranked No. 24 in the AP Top 25 College Football Poll.
“It was by far the best game we played in all three phases and [I’m] really, really proud of my kids,” said UTSA Head Coach Jeff Traylor after the rout of Rice.
The secret might be out with the Roadrunners. They travel to play the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Saturday, and the line has moved from its opening -5 to -7 at both Caesars Sportsbook and PointsBet.
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Syracuse Wins Even When It Loses
Syracuse might have a 3-4 record, but the Orange have covered in three of those four defeats. Their only loss ATS was against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second game of the season. The Orange were a 2.5-point underdog, but lost 17-7.
Other than that misstep, Syracuse has been money ATS. They are covering an average of 7.9 points. Last Friday, they faced Clemson and were getting 13.5 points. They lost to the Tigers, 17-14.
This Saturday, they travel to face the Virginia Tech Hokies. The line actually moved in the Orange’s favor. It opened at 4, but was bet down to 3 at BetMGM.
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Look for Teams That Cover Big
Some teams don’t have the ATS record of Syracuse, Kentucky, Bowling Green State and UTSA. But sometimes when they cover, it’s by double digits.
The biggest point spread winners are the Pittsburgh Panthers. They’re 5-1 ATS, and are covering at an average of 12.8 points. In their game against the New Hampshire Wildcats, they were favored by 30, and won 77-7.
This Saturday, they host the Clemson Tigers, who are 0-6 ATS. The Panthers opened as three-point underdogs, but it was quickly bet in Pittsburgh’s favor, and now they’re laying 3.5 points.
Another team that likes to win big is the Georgia Bulldogs. The No. 1 team in the country is 5-2 ATS, but has an average of 11.9 points. The Bulldogs won three games by 20 or more points ATS.
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Avoid These Parlay Crushers
While there are plenty of teams that have success ATS, there are others to steer clear of. Of the four teams that are winless ATS, Clemson is the worst. The Tigers, who are 4-2 on the season, are 0-6 ATS. They’re averaging a -11.8 in their games against the number. The biggest bust was when they were 10.5-point favorites against the North Carolina State Wolfpack and lost outright 27-21.
The New Mexico Lobos aren’t much better, being 2-5 on the season and failing to cover the spread all year. The Lobos are running at a points margin deficit of 10.9. The team faces the Wyoming Cowboys this Saturday as a 20-point underdog.
The Missouri Tigers are another team with a double-digit negative point margin. The Tigers are failing to cover the spread by an average of 10.1 points in the seven games they have played so far this season.
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NCAAF Week 8 Schedule
There’s a ton of NCAAF action this week and all weekend long. Here are the games to watch, and where (all times ET).
Thursday, October 21
- FAU at Charlotte | 7:30 p.m. | CBSSN
- Tulane at No. 21 SMU | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
- Louisiana at Arkansas State | 7:30 p.m. | ESPNU
- San Jose State at UNLV | 11 p.m. | CBSSN
Friday, October 22
- Middle Tennessee at UConn | 6 p.m. | CBSSN
- Columbia at Dartmouth | 6 p.m. | ESPNU
- Memphis at UCF | 7 p.m. | ESPN2
- Colorado State at Utah State | 9:30 p.m. | CBSSN
- Washington at Arizona | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Saturday, October 23
- Illinois at No. 7 Penn State | 12 p.m. | ABC
- Northwestern at No. 6 Michigan | 12 p.m. | FOX
- 3 Oklahoma at Kansas | 12 p.m. | ESPN
- 2 Cincinnati at Navy | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
- 16 Wake Forest at Army | 12 p.m. | CBSSN
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas | 12 p.m. | SEC Network
- UMass at Florida State | 12 p.m. | ACC Network
- Kansas State at Texas Tech | 12 p.m. | FS1
- Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | 12 p.m. | ESPNU
- Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green | 12 p.m. | ESPN+
- Pennsylvania at Yale | 12 p.m. | ESPN+
- Morehead State at Marist | 12 p.m. | ESPN3
- Duquesne at Sacred Heart | 12 p.m. | ESPN3
- Syracuse at Virginia Tech | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN3
- Kent State at Ohio | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Brown at Cornell | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- North Carolina Central at Morgan State | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Youngstown State at Indiana State | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Georgetown at Bucknell | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- San Diego at Presbyterian | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Lehigh at Fordham | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Harvard at Princeton | 1 p.m. | ESPN+
- Dayton at Valparaiso | 1 p.m. | ESPN3
- Norfolk State at Howard | 1 p.m. | ESPN3
- Chattanooga at Samford | 1 p.m. | ESPN3
- Incarnate Word at McNeese | 1 p.m. | ESPN3
- Stetson at Drake | 1 p.m. | ESPN3
- Robert Morris at Gardner-Webb | 1:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- Texas State at Georgia State | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- North Carolina A&T at Hampton | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- Illinois State at South Dakota | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- Western Carolina at The Citadel | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- East Tennessee State at Furman | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- Bethune-Cookman at Jackson State | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
- South Carolina State at Delaware State | 2 p.m. | ESPN3
- Virginia Lynchburg at Tennessee Tech | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- Wisconsin at No. 25 Purdue | 3 p.m. | Big Ten Network
- Jacksonville State at Sam Houston | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
- Idaho State at Montana State | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
- Western Illinois at South Dakota | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
- Tennessee State at Eastern Illinois | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
- Southeast Missouri State at UT Martin | 3 p.m. | ESPN+
- Northern Iowa at South Dakota State | 3 p.m. | ESPN3
- Charleston Southern at North Alabama | 3 p.m. | ESPN3
- Austin Peay at Murray State | 3 p.m. | ESPN3
- LSU at No. 12 Ole Miss | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
- Clemson at No. 23 Pitt | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- Maryland at Minnesota | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2
- 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
- 10 Oregon at UCLA | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
- BYU at Washington State | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
- Colorado at Cal | 3:30 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
- Western Michigan at Toledo | 3:30 p.m. | CBSSN
- Rice at UAB | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- Miami (Ohio) at Ball State | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- Buffalo at Akron | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- New Mexico at Wyoming | 3:30 p.m.
- Missouri State at North Dakota State | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- Mississippi State at Vanderbilt | 4 p.m. | SEC Network
- Boston College at Louisville | 4 p.m. | ACC Network
- East Carolina at Houston | 4 p.m. | ESPNU
- Liberty at North Texas | 4 p.m. | ESPN+
- Weber State at Eastern Washington | 4 p.m. | ESPN+
- Kennesaw State at Campbell | 4 p.m. | ESPN+
- Southeastern Louisiana at Northwestern State | 4 p.m. | ESPN+
- Colgate at Holy Cross | 5 p.m. | ESPN+
- Wofford at Mercer | 6 p.m. | ESPN+
- Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama | 7 p.m. | ESPN
- South Alabama at UL Monroe | 7 p.m. | ESPN3
- 22 San Diego State at Air Force | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
- Nevada at Fresno State | 7 p.m. | FS2
- Western Kentucky at FIU | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- Temple at South Florida | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- 24 UTSA at Louisiana Tech | 7 p.m.
- Central Arkansas at Lamar | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- Midwestern State at Tarleton | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- Nicholls at Houston Baptist | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- Prairie View A&M at Southern | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
- USC at No. 13 Notre Dame | 7:30 p.m. | NBC
- 5 Ohio State at Indiana | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- West Virginia at TCU | 7:30 p.m. | ESPNU
- South Carolina at No. 17 Texas A&M | 7:30 p.m. | SEC Network
- 18 NC State at Miami | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN2
- Georgia Tech at Virginia | 7:30 p.m. | ACC Network
- Utah at Oregon State | 7:30 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
- Montana at Idaho | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN+
- UC Davis at Cal Poly | 8 p.m. | ESPN+
- Northern Colorado at Southern Utah | 8 p.m. | ESPN+
- Stephen F. Austin at Dixie State | 9 p.m. | ESPN+
- Northern Arizona at Sacramento State | 9 p.m. | ESPN+
- New Mexico State at Hawaii | 11:59 p.m.